Subscribe to the Bettorstalk
Mailing List
Enter your email address
What do you think about these picks?
Speak your mind in our
forum section

Record: FreeSportsLetter
History of Plays:



Monday January 23

3*** Washington +4.5 over CHARLOTTE

BIO:
Rich Green is the editor of http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com a free sports handicapping and information service. He has been a top ranked handicapper for over 40 years. He specializes in Football, Basketball and Baseball, all the major sports, and has won numerous contests in each.

(SCROLL DOWN FOR NFL TRENDS)



2016 NFL and NCAA Football Against The Spread (ATS) Trends

Here is a look before the 2016 College Football season starts on lined teams and some basic ATS trends:

Air Force -- 4-0 ATS vs Boise State, 0-7 ATS vs Wyoming

Akron -- 5-1 ATS with Rest off a win, 0-8 ATS vs Bowling Green

Alabama -- 8-0 ATS as non-Conf Favs <28.,5 pts, 0-5 ATS off back-to-back Straight Up losses

Appalachian State -- 3-0 ATS as Dogs <18.5 points, 1-5 ATS vs non-Conference foes

Arizona -- 4-0 ATS vs Utah, 0-4 ATS vs UCLA

Arizona State -- 10-0 ATS vs Washington, 2-8 ATS as beaten Favs

Arkansas -- 4-0 ATS vs LSU, 1-8 ATS vs Florida

Arkansas State -- 6-0 ATS vs UL-Monroe, 0-8 ATS as Favs off allowing Single Digit points

Army -- 4-1 ATS vs Navy, 0-6 ATS vs Temple

Auburn -- 6-0 ATS at Home vs Vanderbilt, 0-4 ATS vs Mississippi State

Ball State -- New Head Coach, 10-0 ATS after playing Eastern Michigan, 0-4 ATS vs Northern Illinois

Baylor -- New Head Coach, 7-0 ATS versus Rice, 0-5 ATS versus Tcu

Boise State -- 9-1 ATS in second of back-to-back Road games, 0-4 ATS vs New Mexico

Boston College -- 8-1 ATS before playing Wake Forest, 1-12 ATS as Road Favs >3.5 pts

Bowling Green -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS vs Ohio U, 1-7 ATS at Home with Rest

Buffalo -- 6-1 ATS before playing Miami-Ohio, 1-5 ATS as Weekday Road Dogs

BYU -- New Head Coach, 7-0 ATS at Home as beaten Favs, 0-6 ATS with Rest

California -- 8-1 ATS at Home vs UCLA, 1-6 ATS vs Usc

Central Michigan -- 19-3 ATS as Conf Favs less than a TD, 0-6 ATS vs Toledo

Charlotte -- Second lined year, 0-6 ATS as Double Digit Dogs

Cincinnati -- 5-0 ATS vs UConn, 0-3 ATS vs Miami-Ohio

Clemson -- 3-0 ATS vs Auburn, 1-6 ATS vs South Carolina

Colorado -- 6-0 ATS at Home as beaten Favs, 0-6 ATS vs Stanford

Colorado State -- 3-0 ATS vs New Mexico, 0-3 ATS vs Utah State

Connecticut -- 5-1 ATS vs Syracuse, 0-5 ATS vs Cincinnati

Duke -- 7-1 ATS vs Virginia, 1-4 ATS vs Miami

East Carolina -- New Head Coach, 9-0 ATS vs non-Conference foes, 2-9 ATS with Rest

Eastern Michigan -- 5-0 ATS after playing Toledo, 0-9 ATS off Double-Digit Straight Up win

Florida -- 8-1 ATS vs Kentucky, 1-6 ATS after scoring < a Touchdown

Florida Atlantic -- 7-1 ATS in second of back-to-back Road Games, 1-6 ATS in Weekday Home games

Florida International -- 71 ATS at Home after scoring 35 or more points, 0-4 ATS vs Western Kentucky

Florida State -- 4-0 ATS after playing NC State, 0-7 ATS after a SU Dog win

Fresno State -- 4-1 ATS as beaten Favs, 0-6 ATS after playing Colorado State

Georgia -- New Head Coach, 6-0 ATS on the Road off a SU Dog win, 0-6 ATS with Rest

Georgia Southern -- New Head Coach, 3-0 ATS as Favs less than 12 points

Georgia State -- 5-0 ATS in non-Conference Play, 1-4 ATS as Home Dogs

Georgia Tech -- 5-0 ATS at Virginia Tech, 2-9 ATS on the Road vs opponents off a SU Dog win

Hawaii -- New Head Coach, 3-0 ATS at Air Force, 2-10 ATS in second of back-to-back Road Games

Houston -- 9-1 ATS vs Tulane, 0-5 ATS after scoring 3 or less points

Idaho -- 3-1 ATS vs UL-Monroe, 1-5 ATS with Rest

Illinois -- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back Home games, 1-9 ATS vs Michigan State

Indiana -- 5-0 ATS Home as beaten Favs, 1-6 ATS with Rest

Iowa -- 8-0 ATS on the Road with Revenge, 0-8 ATS off 3+ ATS wins

Iowa State -- New Head Coach, 7-0 ATS as Home Favs <10.5 pts, 1-11 ATS after playing Texas Tech

Kansas -- 4-0 ATS vs Tcu, 1-14 ATS after playing Oklahoma

Kansas State -- 9-1 ATS at Home vs Oklahoma State, 2-8 ATS on the Road off back-to-back SU losses

Kent State -- 3-0 ATS at Bowling Green, 0-6 ATS as Home Favs off SU loss

Kentucky -- 8-2 ATS as non-Conf Favs of at least two TDs, 1-8 ATS vs Tennessee

UL-Lafayette -- 3-0 ATS vs Texas State, 1-5 ATS as Weekday Favs

UL-Monroe -- New Head Coach, 8-2 ATS after scoring less than a TD, 0-6 ATS vs Arkansas State

Louisiana Tech -- 6-0 ATS off a SU Dog win, 0-4 ATS on the Road after scoring a TD or less

Louisville -- 9-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs off a SU win, 0-4 ATS as Conf Dogs after allowing >34.5 pts

LSU -- 5-0 ATS vs Texas A&M, 0-4 ATS vs Arkansas

Marshall -- 7-1 ATS after scoring 10 or less pts, 2-8 ATS as beaten Favs

Maryland -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS on the Road vs opponents who are beaten Favs, 1-6 ATS as Dogs with Rest

Memphis -- New Head Coach, 13-2 ATS in last Road game, 1-6 ATS as Weekday Favs

Miami -- New Head Coach, 6-1 ATS vs Georgia Tech, 2-15 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS wins

Miami OH -- 3-0 ATS vs Kent State, 1-7 ATS after playing Kent State

Michigan -- 5-0 ATS at Home with Rest, 0-8 ATS vs Michigan State

Michigan State -- 8-0 ATS vs Michigan, 0-4 ATS with Rest

MTSU -- 4-1 ATS in first of back-to-back Road games, 0-7 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS losses

Minnesota -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS with Rest, 0-7 ATS after playing Purdue

Mississippi -- 7-0 ATS before playing Alabama, 1-10 ATS as Road Favs off a SU win

Mississippi State -- 4-0 ATS vs Auburn, 1-6 ATS vs South Carolina

Missouri -- New Head Coach, 55-4 ATS when they win Straight Up on the Road, 0-3 ATS vs West Virginia

Navy -- 6-1 ATS on the Road with Revenge, 0-6 ATS as Favs of at least two TDs

Nebraska -- 4-0 ATS after playing Illinois, 1-5 ATS vs Wisconsin

Nevada -- 3-0 ATS vs San Jose State, 1-5 ATS vs rivals off a SU Dog win

New Mexico -- 5-0 ATS vs Boise State, 1-8 ATS at Home after scoring <10.5 pts

New Mexico State -- 5-1 ATS vs Idaho, 0-13 ATS in first of back-to-back Home games

North Carolina -- 6-0 ATS before playing Georgia Tech, 0-5 ATS as DD Dogs off a DD SU win

North Carolina State -- 13-0 ATS as Dogs with Rest, 0-4 ATS after playing Florida State

North Texas -- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS at Home vs beaten Favs, 0-3 ATS vs Army

Northern Illinois -- 10-0 ATS in Weekday Road games, 1-5 ATS before playing Central Michigan

Northwestern -- 7-0 ATS at Home vs Wisconsin, 1-8 ATS before playing Iowa

Notre Dame -- 5-0 ATS with Revenge, 2-9 ATS after playing Navy

Ohio State -- 16-1 ATS after playing Penn State, 0-5 ATS vs Indiana

Ohio U -- 6-1 ATS vs Akron, 0-5 ATS vs Bowling Green

Oklahoma -- 6-0 ATS before playing Baylor, 0-7 ATS at Home vs Baylor

Oklahoma State -- 12-0 ATS at Kansas, 1-9 ATS at Kansas State

Old Dominion -- 4-0 ATS as Dogs off a SU win, 0-6 ATS off a SU loss

Oregon -- 5-0 ATS vs California, 0-6 ATS vs Washington State

Oregon State -- 12-2 ATS after playing Washington State, 0-6 ATS vs Stanford

Penn State -- 3-0 ATS vs Maryland, 1-11 ATS on the Road

Pittsburgh -- 7-1 ATS vs Virginia Tech, 1-8 ATS off a SU Dog win

Purdue -- 8-0 ATS as Double Digit Road Dogs, 1-9 ATS vs Wisconsin

Rice -- 7-0 ATS as Favs less than four points, 0-7 ATS vs Baylor

Rutgers -- New Head Coach, 3-0 ATS vs Michigan State, 1-5 ATS in first of back-to-back Home games

San Diego State -- 6-1 ATS before playing Hawaii, 0-4 ATS as Favs < TD with Revenge

San Jose State -- 9-0 ATS as Road Favs off a Double Digit SU win, 0-5 ATS vs Boise State

SMU -- 4-0 ATS after playing TCU, 0-11 ATS before playing Tulsa

South Alabama -- 6-1 ATS on the Road vs rivals off a SU loss, 1-4 ATS vs opponents off a SU Dog win

South Carolina -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS at Home vs Georgia, 0-3 ATS vs Kentucky

South Florida -- 5-0 ATS off a SU Dog win, 2-11 ATS with Rest

Southern Mississippi -- New Head Coach, 9-4 ATS last year, 2-11 ATS on Weekdays

Stanford -- 6-0 ATS vs Oregon State, 0-3 ATS vs Notre Dame

Syracuse -- New Head Coach, 3-0 ATS vs Wake Forest,1-5 ATS after playing Boston College

TCU -- 5-0 ATS vs Baylor, 0-6 ATS off SU Dog win vs below avg opponents

Temple -- 9-1 ATS vs UConn, 0-10 ATS as Favs with Rest

Tennessee -- 8-1 ATS vs Kentucky, 1-6 ATS at Home vs Alabama

Texas -- 5-1 ATS vs Texas Tech, 0-4 ATS at Kansas State

Texas A&M -- 4-0 ATS on the Road off a SU Dog win, 0-10 ATS with Rest

Texas State -- New Head Coach, 7-0 ATS after allowing 35 or more pts vs non-Conf rivals, 0-4 ATS as Conf Home Favs

Texas Tech -- 5-1 ATS in first of back-to-back Road games, 0-5 ATS after playing TCU

Toledo -- New Head Coach, 8-1 ATS vs Eastern Michigan, 0-3 ATS vs Akron

Troy -- 6-0 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, 0-4 ATS vs Arkansas State

Tulane -- New Head Coach, 4-1 ATS after playing Navy, 0-5 ATS on Weekdays

Tulsa -- 8-1 ATS as Dogs with Rest, 2-9 ATS versus non-Conf rival

UCF -- New Head Coach, 6-0 ATS in Weekday Road games, 2-8 ATS as Road Favs

UCLA -- 4-0 ATS vs Arizona, 1-8 ATS at California

UMASS -- 6-0 ATS after scoring at least 35 pts, 1-7 ATS with Revenge off Conf Play

UNLV -- 7-0 ATS Weekday Home games, 0-5 ATS after playing Wyoming

USC -- New Head Coach, 6-1 ATS vs Cal, 1-6 ATS off Weekday Play

Utah -- 8-0 ATS after playing Arizona State, 1-8 ATS after allowing <10.5 pts

Utah State -- 6-1 ATS Weekdays, 1-8 ATS before playing Nevada

UTEP -- 6-0 ATS before playing Southern Mississippi, 0-7 ATS at Rice

UTSA -- New Head Coach, 6-1 ATS on the Road in non-Conf Play, 0-6 ATS as beaten Favs

Vanderbilt -- 5-0 ATS vs Kentucky, 2-8 as Favs vs beaten Favs

Virginia -- New Head Coach, 6-1 ATS with Rest, 0-9 ATS as Favs vs above avg opponents

Virginia Tech -- New Head Coach, 6-1 ATS as Road Dogs, 0-5 ATS at Home vs Georgia Tech

Wake Forest -- 5-0 ATS before playing Clemson, 0-12 ATS as Favs >13 pts

Washington -- 9-0 ATS with Rest in Conf Play, 0-10 ATS vs Arizona State

Washington State -- 6-0 ATS vs Oregon, 0-4 ATS on Weekdays

West Virginia -- 11-0 ATS vs rivals who were beaten Favs, 0-7 ATS as Home Favs <9 pts

Western Kentucky -- 4-0 ATS vs Florida International, 1-5 ATS vs North Texas

Western Michigan -- 5-1 ATS vs Akron, 2-11 ATS vs Northern Illinois

Wisconsin -- 6-0 ATS after playing Illinois, 0-7 ATS at Northwestern

Wyoming -- 7-0 ATS vs Air Force, 0-5 ATS after scoring at least 35 points





Here is a look before the 2016 NFL Football season starts on teams and some basic ATS trends:



Arizona -- Coach is 12-0 ATS as Dog <4.5 points and 12-3 ATS off non-Division Play vs above avg rivals, 0-6 ATS on MNF, 1-7 ATS on Thursdays

Atlanta -- 9-2 ATS on Thursdays, 7-1 ATS off MNF, 3-13 ATS as Favs, 0-5 ATS as beaten Favs

Baltimore -- 5-0 ATS on MNF, 6-0 ATS vs Miami, 0-6 ATS as Dogs on Thursdays, 1-6 ATS before playing Cleveland

Buffalo -- 5-0 ATS versus Jets, 7-1 ATS after scoring <10.5 pts, 2-9 ATS after playing New England, 0-6 ATS on the Road off a SU Dog win

Carolina -- 5-0 ATS with Division Revenge, 6-0 ATS before Thursday Play, 0-4 ATS before playing Atlanta, 1-7 ATS as Favs before Bye Week

Chicago -- 14-2 ATS before playing Detroit, 7-1 ATS on the Road in non-Conference Play, 0-6 ATS Home off non-Conference Play, 2-10 ATS before playing Minnesota

Cincinnati -- 9-0 ATS as non-Conference Home Dogs, 10-1 ATS after scoring <10.5 pts, 1-7 ATS vs opponents with Rest, 1-7 ATS vs Houston

Cleveland -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS on Thursdays, 4-0 ATS vs San Diego, 1-7 ATS at Home vs Baltimore, 3-8 ATS after playing Cincinnati

Dallas -- 6-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs, 5-0 ATS with Rest and Revenge, 1-7 ATS vs the NFC South, 1-8 ATS vs Minnesota

Denver -- 7-1 ATS vs Oakland, 6-0 ATS with Rest, 1-6 ATS on MNF, 0-9 ATS vs Indianapolis

Detroit -- 4-0 ATS with Rest, 5-1 ATS on MNF, 0-9 ATS as Thursday Dogs, 0-6 ATS after playing Minnesota

Green Bay -- 8-0 ATS before playing on MNF, 9-1 ATS with Rest, 0-6 ATS as two TD Favs or >, 1-5 ATS off MNF

Houston -- 8-2 ATS before playing Jacksonville, 4-0 ATS vs Tennessee, 0-5 ATS on Thursdays, 1-7 ATS on MNF

Indianapolis -- 5-0 ATS on Thursdays, 9-0 ATS vs Denver, 1-7 ATS vs San Diego, 1-8 ATS on the Road with Revenge

Jacksonville -- 5-1 ATS with Rest, 5-1 ATS after playing Houston, 0-5 ATS as Favs of at least a TD, 0-7 ATS before playing Indianapolis

Kansas City -- 6-0 ATS vs AFC East, 9-2 ATS as non-Division Favs >7.5 pts, 1-5 ATS at Home vs Denver, 1-7 ATS after playing Oakland

Miami -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS vs Seattle, 7-3 ATS vs San Diego, 0-6 ATS vs Baltimore, 0-5 ATS vs Jets

Minnesota -- 7-0 ATS before Bye Week, 13-4 ATS as Home Dogs, 1-5 ATS with Rest, 0-7 ATS on MNF

New England -- 5-1 ATS vs Arizona, 10-0 ATS as Dogs off a Double Digit SU loss, 0-6 ATS vs Jets, 1-8 ATS vs poor Conf rivals

New Orleans -- 9-1 ATS vs NFC North, 5-1 ATS after playing Tampa Bay, 0-5 ATS vs NFC West, 0-7 ATS in 2nd of back-to-back Road games

NY Giants -- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS after playing Washington, 7-0 ATS vs Los Angeles, 1-5 ATS vs NFC West, 1-8 ATS at Home vs Philadelphia

NY Jets -- 5-1 ATS before Bye Week, 6-0 ATS vs New England, 1-9 ATS vs Baltimore, 0-9 ATS on the Road as beaten Favs

Oakland -- 5-0 ATS after scoring a TD or less, 8-2 ATS vs poor Conf rivals, 0-7 ATS before playing San Diego, 0-5 ATS before Bye Week

Philadelphia -- New Head Coach, 8-1 ATS in non-Conf Play, 5-0 ATS off 3+ SU losses, 0-9 ATS vs Cincinnati, 2-9 ATS before playing Giants

Pittsburgh -- 12-2 ATS vs above avg opponents, 9-1 ATS vs Buffalo, 2-8 ATS before playing Cincinnati, 2-9 ATS vs AFC West

Los Angeles-- New Home city, 5-0 ATS vs Tampa Bay, 13-0 ATS as Favs after scoring 35 or > points, 0-7 ATS vs Giants, 2-9 ATS at Home vs NFC North

San Diego -- 12-0 ATS vs AFC South, 8-0 ATS vs Tennessee, 0-8 ATS vs rivals with Rest, 0-5 ATS with Rest

San Francisco -- New Head Coach, 10-1 ATS on MNF, 5-0 ATS vs New Orleans, 2-9 ATS with Rest, 0-8 ATS vs Seattle

Seattle -- 6-0 ATS before MNF, 6-0 ATS on Thursdays, 8-0 ATS vs San Francisco, 1-5 ATS vs Miami, 1-6 ATS Home with Rest

Tampa Bay -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS on the Road vs NFC East, 8-1 ATS as Road Dogs after scoring at least 35 pts, 1-7 ATS before Bye Week, 0-5 ATS after playing New Orleans

Tennessee -- New Head Coach, 6-1 ATS as Double Digit Favs, 5-0 ATS on MNF, 0-7 ATS before Thursday Play, 0-9 ATS after scoring at least 35 pts

Washington -- 13-4 ATS before playing Giants, 7-1 ATS before playing Dallas, 1-12 ATS at Home on MNF, 1-7 ATS with Rest




2016 NFL AND NCAA Football Wagering Tips

Emotion— The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers. The most important edge is emotion. Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events. This is true in all sports. But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football. Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such Coaches as John Holliday, Paul Johnson, Bill Belichick and anyone named Harbaugh among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years.

Sandwich Games— Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games. The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division. Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each. They are called the East, North, South and West. So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division. When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team.

If Seattle for example, early in the season, plays Arizona this week and San Francisco in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games. But if the in-between game is against say Atlanta, a lesser out of Division team, be careful! Seattle will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week. Starters may be pulled early against Atlanta, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one.

Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'. The team usually wins, but fails to cover. Then the bettor jumps off of Seattle the following week against San Francisco because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!

Line Movement— Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything. When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ˝ to one point with me. Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me. When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc. But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.

Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line. This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game. I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it. They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways. The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet. They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.

NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on. For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years. Every week! For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points. Sometimes it can move even more. Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction.

Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2016 Football Wagering Season! Make sure to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores, and more importantly, FREE Winners!

--Rich Green


--Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com




2009-01-13
The Finish Line for Football Approaches, by Jimmy Vaccaro
2009-01-06
Extra Time Between Kickoffs Is the NFL’s Gift to Bettors, by Jimmy Vaccaro
2009-01-01
Wild Card Weekend, 4 Road Favorites?, by Jimmy Vaccaro
2008-12-23
Are You Ready for Some Innovation? , by Jimmy Vaccaro
2008-12-16
“Must Win” Games Are a Trap for Bettors, by Jimmy Vaccaro
Search Articles
Username
Password
Remember Password
NOTE: Make sure your browser is set to accept cookies. Otherwise you may not be able to navigate some important BettorsTalk pages.